The Impact of Armed Conflict On The Epidemiological Manifestations of COVID-19 in Libya And Possible BCG Vaccine Induced Protection

الملخص

The emergence of COVID-19 as a pandemic has a major impact all over the world. Such impacts are rarely studied within countries enfolded by armed conflicts. The objectives of this study were to 1-determine the epidemiological characterization   of COVID-19 in Libya 2- The influence of the armed conflict of the geographical clustering of the epidemic 3- Outline the needed policy to  control the epidemic and the upcoming consequences.  All the officially confirmed cases of COVID-19 were collected from all over Libyan regions from March till Oct.10^th, 2020. The data were  analyzed and spatiotemporal distribution was determined. The prevalence of  the   epidemic was determined in each city affected by the ongoing conflict. A total of 41686  cases were reported during the study period. The geographic density varied greatly form one region to another and the war has affected the prevalence within the cities according to their geographic proximity of the ongoing war. The death prevalence from COVID-19 Was estimated at 623/1.5% and was higher among the  distant cities compared with the closer cities engulfed in the war. In conclusion  our results supports the possible role of timely BCG vaccination in the protection from COVID-19 and more research should be addressed. COVID-19 has  great effect on  the Libyan community and clearly influenced  by the ongoing conflict, Hence then strategies  should be planned to combat both the consequences epidemic and the armed conflict.