Conflict Between War and Diplomacy and Scenarios for Resolving the Libyan Crisis

Abstract

This study seeks to analyze the Libyan crisis as a complex phenomenon that extends beyond the events of the 2011 revolution, revealing deep-rooted historical legacies and prolonged institutional failure that have led to state fragmentation and the emergence of new forms of violence and corruption. The research builds on the theoretical framework of the “failed state” concept and applies it to the Libyan case by examining indicators of institutional collapse, the erosion of the state’s monopoly over violence, the proliferation of armed militias and foreign mercenaries, and the dominance of kleptocratic governance structures. It further highlights internal factors, including institutional fragility and tribal and societal divisions, alongside external dynamics such as regional and international interventions that have intensified the conflict and transformed Libya into a proxy battlefield. The study also explores the direct repercussions of the crisis on the political, security, economic, and humanitarian levels, including institutional fragmentation, the deterioration of public services, rampant corruption, massive economic losses, and the expansion of humanitarian suffering and internal displacement. A case study of the health sector is presented as a clear illustration of the impact of political division on citizens’ daily lives. The paper concludes by proposing potential scenarios for resolution that emphasize rebuilding state institutions, unifying the executive authority and security sector, implementing disarmament and transitional justice programs, and adopting a consensual constitutional framework accompanied by inclusive elections. It also underscores the need for equitable spatial development policies and effective anti-corruption mechanisms. The study ultimately argues that overcoming the Libyan crisis requires a comprehensive path linking political, security, and economic reforms, anchored in national reconciliation and good governance with international support and guarantees, thereby enabling the transition toward a stable, democratic, and civil state.